FirnCover 2016 Greenland expedition route

Posted by William Colgan on March 15, 2016
New Research / No Comments

Our Arctic Circle Traverse 2016 (“ACT16”) campaign is getting underway next month, and one look at the expedition map and it seems like we’ve outgrown our name! The ACT expedition series began in 2004, as snowmobile traverses roughly aligned with the Arctic Circle (66 °N) in support of the NASA Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA). Since the 2013 initiation of the NASA FirnCover program, however, there has been a strong motivation to simultaneously sample more remote sites on the ice sheet. Firn compaction rate, the key process that FirnCover seeks to measure and model, is sensitive to both air temperature and snowfall rate. That means firn compaction rates vary with latitude and elevation, so when the FirnCover team goes to Greenland, we try to sample the ice sheet from North-South and low-high. That makes for a lot of travel!

ACT16_expedition_route

Figure 1 – Logistics behind our Arctic Circle Traverse 2016 (ACT16) expedition route. Red denotes US Air National Guard flights. Purple denotes NSF charter flights. Green denotes commercial flights. Blue denotes snowmobile traverses.

This April the ACT16 team will gather in Schenectady, NY to hitch a ride to Kangerlussuaq, GL with the US Air National Guard. After a pause in Kanger, the 109th Airlift Wing will deliver us to their Camp Raven skiway near Dye-2 in the ice sheet interior. Once in the ice sheet interior, the ACT16 team will fission into two groups, with a base group staying at Dye-2 for detailed firn measurements, and a traverse group snowmobiling to firn instrumentation sites along the Arctic Circle. Afterwards, our two groups will join up and catch an NSF charter flight off the ice to Kanger for some brief decompression. Then a subset of the ACT16 team will fly north to Summit and the NEGIS deep coring site for more firn instrumentation and measurements. Eventually we’ll make our way back to Kanger and head home on commercial flights via Iceland. With military and NSF charter flights, temperamental snowmobiles, and a mix of commercial airlines, the logistics for this five week field season are pretty intense!

C130_icecap

Figure 2 – A ski-equipped C-130 from the 109th Airlift Wing of the US Air National Guard taxiing on the Camp Raven skiway near Dye-2 during ACT13.

I’m most excited to visit NEGIS, not because I think it will be any more (or less) spectacular than any other location in the ice sheet interior, but simply because I haven’t been there before. A new dot on the map is always cause for delight. This field season, however, I will be keeping track of my personal carbon footprint, and I expect the charter flight to NEGIS and back is going to figure prominently in that calculation.

This post is cross-posted on the FirnCover blog.

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Glacier Crevasses: A Review

Posted by William Colgan on February 29, 2016
New Research / No Comments

We have a new review paper on glacier crevasses in the current issue of Reviews of Geophysics1. We survey sixty years of crevasse studies, from field observations to numerical modeling to remote sensing of crevasses, and also provide a synthesis of ten distinct mechanisms via which crevasses influence glacier mass balance.

Two years ago, our team embarked on what was supposed to be a brief review of crevasse science to help interpret maps of Greenland crevasse extent that we are generating from laser altimetry data as part of a NASA project entitled “Assessing Greenland Crevasse Extent and Characteristics Using Historical ICESat and Airborne Laser Altimetry Data”. The final review ended up containing 250 references and being 43 typeset pages in length. Evidently we found the crevasse life cycle contained more nuances than we had initially assumed! Here are some of the highlights that have shifted our paradigm:

Field observations – Although crevasses are conventionally conceptualized to initiate at the surface and propagate downwards, we were surprised to find compelling evidence that at least some crevasses initiate at several metres depth, before propagating upwards to appear at the glacier surface. For example, observations that new crevasses can intersect relict crevasses at angles as low as 5 ° indicates that the stresses governing fracture are below the depth of relict crevasses (as relict crevasses do not serve as stress foci). This has implications for interpreting “buried” crevasses as relict or active.

Crevasse_Field_Sample

Figure 1 – Measured principal strain rates and crevasse locations observed circa 1995 at Worthington Glacier, USA2. The cross-cutting of relict crevasses by active crevasses indicates relative crevasse chronologies can exist at a single point on a glacier.

Numerical modeling – While crevasses have conventionally been assumed to form perpendicular to principal extending stresses on glaciers, we were intrigued to find strong model evidence that non-trivial crevasse curvature and rotation can result when there is substantial shearing (Mode III fracture) acting in addition to the more the common opening (Mode I fracture). The role of such mixed-mode fracture in shaping crevasse geometry has implications for interpreting curved / rotated crevasses as either deformed following opening or in equilibrium with local shear.

Crevasse_Modes

Figure 2 – Schematic illustrating the three modes of fracture: Mode I (opening), Mode II (sliding), and Mode III (tearing).

Remote Sensing – Remote sensing technologies for crevasse detection exhibited remarkable growth over the past 60 years. Real-time crevasse detection for traverse vehicles advanced from Cold War era rudimentary push-broom “dishpans”, which measured bulk electric current density of surrounding ice, to modern fully autonomous rovers capable of executing ground penetrating radar grids. In terms of satellite imagery, crevasses went from being manually delineated in the coarse resolution visible imagery that became available in the 1970s to now being automatically detected by feature tracking algorithms in higher resolution visible and synthetic aperture radar imagery.

CrevassePastPresent

Figure 3 – Left: Cold War era “dishpan” detection system that inferred crevasses from changes in bulk electric current density3. Right: An autonomous ground-penetrating radar unit (Yeti) being used to map near-surface buried crevasses at White Island, Antarctica. (Photo: Jim Lever)

Mass Balance Implications – While many studies have described individual mechanisms by which crevasses can influence glacier mass balance, we wanted to provide an overview of all the possible mechanisms, and we were fortunate enough to have a graphic artist help us do it in a single schematic. The mass balance implications of crevasses contain several counter-intuitive nuances. For example, crevasses can enhance basal sliding in the accumulation area and suppress basal sliding in the ablation area. Given their myriad mass balance implications, however, crevasses may serve as both indicators and agents of changing glacier form and flow.

Crevasse_Summary

Figure 4 – Schematic overview of the various processes through which crevassed surfaces influence glacier mass balance relative to non-crevassed surfaces: (1) increased solar energy collection and enhanced surface ablation, (2) increased turbulent heat fluxes and enhanced surface ablation, (3) decreased buried crevasse air temperatures and suppressed ice deformation, (4) increased bulk glacier porosity and enhanced ablation area water retention, (5) increased supraglacial lake drainage and suppressed accumulation area water retention, (6) increased supraglacial lake drainage and enhanced ice deformation, (7) attenuated transmission of hydrologic variability (relative to moulins) and suppressed basal sliding velocities, (8) increased cryo-hydrologic warming of ice temperatures and enhanced ice deformation, (9) increased water content / hydraulic weakening and enhanced ice deformation, and (10) iceberg calving.

1Colgan, W., H. Rajaram, W. Abdalati, C. McCutchan, R. Mottram, M. S. Moussavi and S. Grigsby. 2016. Glacier crevasses: Observations, models, and mass balance implications. Reviews of Geophysics. 54: doi:10.1002/
2015RG000504.

2Harper, J., N. Humphrey and W. Pfeffer. 1998. Crevasse patterns and the strain-rate tensor: A high-resolution comparison. Journal of Glaciology. 44: 68–76.

3Mellor, M. 1963. Oversnow Transport. Cold Regions Science and Engineering. Monograph III-A4. 104 pages.

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Greenland Ice Sheet Melt-Albedo Feedback

Posted by William Colgan on December 01, 2015
Climate Change, New Research / No Comments

We have a new study in the current issue of The Cryosphere that looks at the surface energy budget at a site on the Greenland Ice Sheet, and particularly the energy available for meltwater production, over a five-year period spanning the 2010 and 2012 exceptional melt years1. While both the summers of 2010 and 2012 were exceptionally warm, only 2012 resulted in a negative mass balance. In fact, 2012 was the first year since records began that there was more meltwater runoff than snowfall at the site (KAN_U at 1840 m elevation in Southwest Greenland).

In the study we describe how the 2010 exceptional melt year appears to have preconditioned the near-surface layers of the ice sheet to dramatically strengthen the melt-albedo feedback in the subsequent 2012 exceptional melt year. Essentially, we suggest that near-surface ice lenses created by refreezing meltwater in the 2010 melt season made the ice sheet surface transition more readily from relatively high albedo light snow to relatively low albedo dark ice in the 2012 melt season. The substantially darker 2012 ice sheet surface absorbed more solar energy, and therefore caused more melt per ray of sunshine, than in 2010. We estimate that this melt-albedo feedback resulted in approximately 58 % more solar energy absorbed, and available for melt, in 2012 than in 2010.

While 2010 and 2012 were exceptional melt seasons in the context of the past thirty years, they are likely to have foreshadowed the upcoming thirty years. As Greenland climate is now rapidly warming, summer melt intensity no longer oscillates around its long term mean, and instead previously exceptional events are becoming normal. We therefore speculate that under persistent climate change, the firn at the KAN_U site will likely become saturated with refrozen ice lenses, which will enhance the melt-albedo feedback and perhaps even inhibit the downward percolation of meltwater. Ultimately, this will accelerate the transition of the contemporary lower accumulation area underlain by firn into an ablation area underlain by superimposed ice.

Maintaining the relatively sensitive automatic weather station needed to accurately measure surface energy fluxes in the relatively harsh ice sheet environment was no easy task. It took a number of scientists and funding agencies, which are listed in the acknowledgement section of the paper, to make this study possible. The KAN_U weather station continues to report real-time climate data via the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) data portal: www.promice.dk.

2010_2012_Fluxes

Figure 1 – Monthly mean energy fluxes observed at KAN_U: shortwave (ES), longwave (EL), sensible heat (EH), evaporative (EE), geothermal (EG), precipitation (EP) and melt (EM). The melt flux was calculated as a residual.

KAN_U_location

Figure 2 – A: Location of Kangerlussuaq Upper Station (KAN_U) on the Greenland Ice Sheet. B: The PROMICE climate station deployed to measure surface energy budget.

1Charalampidis, C., D. van As, J. Box, M. van den Broeke, W. Colgan, S. Doyle, A. Hubbard, M. MacFerrin, H. Machguth and C. Smeets. 2015. Changing surface–atmosphere energy exchange and refreezing capacity of the lower accumulation area, West Greenland. The Cryosphere. 9: 2163-2181.

Tags: , , , , , , ,

New Report: Applied Glaciology Primer

Posted by William Colgan on November 13, 2015
Applied Glaciology, Glaciers and Society / No Comments

The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) has been involved in several applied glaciology projects since the early 1980s, such as assessments for the hydropower plants now operating at Ilulissat and Nuuk, and glacial lake outburst flood assessments for Isortuarsuup and Qorlortossup in South Greenland. In a report entitled “Unique applied glaciology challenges of proglacial mining” in this year’s Report on Geological Survey Activities, we provide a brief overview of four unique glacier-related geotechnical challenges confronting industrial operations adjacent to a glacier. We discuss these four especially unique applied glaciology challenges in the context of a new generation of mining projects that seek to excavate through glaciers to reach sub-glacial ore, such as the active Kumtor Mine in Kyrgyzstan and the approved Isua Mine in Greenland. The four uniquely glacier-related geotechnical challenges we discuss are supraglacial runoff, subglacial water flow, ice movement and supraglacial access roads. We also highlight how climate change is poised to further exacerbate these geotechnical challenges, as increased meltwater production generally enhances both water flow and ice flow into proglacial sites. We hope this report can serve as a quick survey of recent applied glaciology activities for non-specialists.

ROSA_sites

Site overviews of the recently approved Isua project in Greenland (left) and the recently approved Kerr-Sulphurets-Mitchell and Brucejack projects in Canada (right).

*W. Colgan, H. Thomsen and M. Citterio. 2015. Unique applied glaciology challenges of proglacial mining. Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Bulletin. 33: 61–64.

*This report serves as the citation for the proglacial mining projects open-file located here.

Tags: , , , , ,

New Book: Iluliaq – Isbjerge – Icebergs

Posted by William Colgan on September 22, 2015
Climate Change, Communicating Science, Glaciers and Society / No Comments

I was very pleased to have the opportunity to write a preface for Iluliaq – Isbjerge – Icebergs, which contains 100+ pages of watercolours and photographs depicting diverse icebergs around Greenland, along with accompanying Danish/English narration about the iceberg lifecycle (ISBN 978-87-93366-34-3 | available here). I am very supportive of projects like this, which seek to bridge the arts-sciences chasm. It was actually science-editing the iceberg factoids in this book that compelled me to start providing mass loss rates in equivalent tonnes per second in my subsequent publications. I now find saying that Greenland is losing 262 gigatonnes of ice per year, is more abstract than saying it is losing 8300 tonnes per second. Evidently, my perspective was shifted by this delightful project! Below I provide the preface in full.

iluliaq

Preface for Iluliaq – Isbjerge – Icebergs:

“While an individual iceberg is ephemeral, icebergs are a ubiquitous feature of Greenland’s landscape. The shifting nature of icebergs, a constantly drifting and capsizing population, makes them challenging to observe. As they are partway through the transition from glacier ice into ocean water, icebergs are somewhat peripheral to both glaciology/geology and oceanography. Despite these intrinsic difficulties in their study, however, icebergs have never been more important to society than today. Due to climate change, Greenland’s glaciers are now flowing faster than a century ago. The resulting increase in Greenland’s iceberg production is now raising global sea level by 2 cm each decade.

In contrast to the iconic climate change indicators of diminishing sea ice area and glacier volume, there are now more icebergs being produced than a century ago. This provides a very strong motivation to understand the iceberg lifecycle. This lifecycle begins with a thunderous calving at genesis, followed by years of slow drifting and reduction, and quietly ends when the last ice melts into water. In this book, Pernille Kløvedal Nørgaard, Martin von Bülow and Ole Søndergaard provide visually compelling insights on selected aspects of this lifecycle.

By ensuring they not only communicate the natural majesty, but also climatic importance, of Greenland’s icebergs, the authors are helping icebergs assume a rightful place in contemporary public consciousness. The sense of humility evoked by the icebergs depicted here will be familiar to Arctic enthusiasts. These photos and watercolours represent multiple expeditions and extensive travels around Greenland. Similar to documentarians and artists who have accompanied polar expeditions since the Victorian Era, the authors have intentionally sought out a harsh environment, and invited confrontation with adverse conditions, to encapsulate a unique feature of Earth that most people could otherwise never appreciate. Society benefits from such hardy souls, whose passion for nature allows bleak and inaccessible landscapes to be transmitted into our civilized homes.”

Tags: , , , , , ,

Kokanee Glacier Beer and the 1962 “Bomb Horizon”

Posted by William Colgan on August 28, 2015
Cold War Science, Glaciers and Society / No Comments

Dear Kokanee Beer,

I was delighted to hear that, in celebration of Kokanee’s founding in 1962, you’ve decided to sponsor some glaciology research in exchange for the recovery of five liters of glacier ice from 1962. It just so happens that 1962 is also an auspicious year for glaciologists. We glaciologists know 1962 as the “bomb horizon”, due to a worldwide peak in the atmospheric deposition rates of radionuclides derived from thermal weapons testing. Tsar Bomba, the largest thermal-nuclear weapon ever tested, with a yield of over 50 MT, had just been detonated the previous fall (30 October 1961). The USSR conducted about 40 thermal-nuclear weapons tests in 1962, and the US conducted closer to 100! After each test, the radionuclide fallout drifted around the atmosphere for a few weeks before raining down on the landscape, glaciers included.

Fortunately for us glaciologists, the glaciers proved to be really effective in retaining those radionuclides under subsequent snowfall. These days, we can just drill a deep hole in a glacier, lower down a gamma spectrometer, find the peak in radioactivity, and get a quick estimate of the 1962 depth. As you can see from the attached graph of radioactive 137Cs decay with depth, the present-day radioactivity of the 1962 “bomb horizon” is about equivalent to the background radioactivity found today at the glacier surface. So, 1962 melted glacier water is definitely not worse to drink than 2015 melted glacier water, I was just thinking that instead of calling your beer Deja Brew, maybe you should perhaps consider Thermonuclear Haze or even Cesium Peak to really give a fair nod to your 1962 glacier roots?

Yours truly,

William Colgan, Ph.D.

Thermo_Wiki2

Figure 1 – Annual count of world wide thermo-nuclear weapons tests between 1945 and 2013. By far, 1962 was the peak in number of weapons tested. (from Wikipedia)

Thermo_profile

Figure 2 – Profile of radioactive cesium (137Cs) with depth, as well as control profile from a  cadmium (109Cd) source located on the detector, recovered from the Devon Ice Cap in the Canadian Arctic in 2005. The arrow points to the apparent 1962 “bomb horizon”. We talk about using this independent dating technique for ice cores in Colgan and Sharp (2008).

Colgan, W. and M. Sharp. 2008. Combined oceanic and atmospheric influences on net accumulation on Devon Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada. Journal of Glaciology. 54: 28-40.

Tags: , , , , , ,

Vanishing Canada: Group of Seven Landscapes Under Climate Change

Posted by William Colgan on July 31, 2015
Climate Change, Communicating Science / 3 Comments

In collaboration with Virginia Eichhorn of the Tom Thomson Art Gallery, I am hoping to get a very interdisciplinary arts and sciences project underway that looks at the impact of recent and projected climate change on the Canadian landscapes painted by the Group of Seven. The exceptionally vivid expressionist landscape scenes painted by the Group of Seven between 1920 and 1935 have become Canadian cultural icons. The temperature and precipitation trends associated with climate change, however, are changing these landscapes, most visibly through changes in vegetation, snow and glacier extent, lake or sea ice extent, and flood or drought frequency (Figure 1). We intend to reframe Group of Seven paintings as unique time capsules of a vanishing Canada, rather than portraits of an intransient Canada.

Mount_Robson_mockup

Figure 1 – Highly visible landscape change at Mount Robson due to air temperature change. Red shading denotes glacier area change since Lawren Harris originally painted this scene c. 1930.

To do this, we are seeking to dispatch contemporary emerging artists across Canada, to landscapes featured in Group of Seven works, to re-paint impressions of these landscapes under one of three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). These RCPS, ranging from RCP 4.5 to RCP 8.5, essentially range from “optimistic” to “pessimistic” CO2emissions reductions scenarios. For example, RCP 4.5 simulates 4.5 W/m2 increased radiative forcing in year 2100 relative to year 1850, while RCP 8.5 simulates 8.5 W/m2, or almost twice as much, anomalous radiative forcing associated with well-mixed greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources.

Mock_up2

Figure 2 – Envisioning a landscape in 2100 under three IPCC scenarios that vary from the “optimism” of RCP 4.5 to the “pessimism” of RCP 8.5. Byng Inlet was originally painted by Tom Thomson c. 1920.

We are ultimately aiming for a cross-disciplinary arts and sciences exhibition that will place specific Group of Seven landscapes, and more broadly Canada’s landscape, in the context of ongoing climate change in a highly visual fashion. Inspired by ArtTracks150, we are hoping that Canada’s 150th birthday (July 2017) may provide a natural window of increased public awareness of centurial time-scales, during which we might briefly focus public attention on the multi-generational implications of climate change on the Canadian landscape. Virginia and I welcome you to contact us for more information on, and ways to get involved with, this project.

Tags: , , , , ,

Artificial Glacier Surges at Kumtor Mine

Posted by William Colgan on July 27, 2015
Applied Glaciology, New Research / No Comments

Jamieson and colleagues published a very neat investigation of the applied glaciology challenges at Kumtor Mine, Kyrgyzstan, this week in the AGU Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface (open access here). The recovery of subglacial gold deposits at Kumtor Mine has necessitated the excavation of an open ice pit into the Lysii and Davidov Glaciers. In addition to excavating glacier overburden, a major geotechnical challenge at Kumtor Mine has been managing the flow of both glaciers. In their study, Jamieson et al. (2015) use a comprehensive set of high resolution satellite images to document recent artificial surges induced in both these glaciers in response to mining activities. Photos released by Radio Free Europe in 2013 suggest that these artificial surges quite adversely impacted mining operations (Figure 1).

Kumtor_glacier_damage

Figure 1 – Infrastructure damage resulting from what is now a confirmed glacier advance at the Kumtor Mine in Kyrgyzstan (originally discussed in this earlier post)

The dumping of waste rock on both glaciers, in which waste rock piles reached up to 180 m thick, substantially increased the driving stress of the ice beneath. Given that ice deformation is related to driving stress to an exponent of three, and potentially higher exponents at higher driving stresses, this resulted in a significant increase in ice velocity. Jamieson et al. (2015) estimate that surface velocities of the Davidov Glacier increased from a few meters per year to several hundred meters per year within a decade. During this time, the Lysii and Davidov Glaciers advanced by 1.2 and 3.2 km, respectively, with Davidov Glacier terminus advance reaching 350 meters per year in c. 2012 (Figure “7”).

Jamieson1

This study is probably the most textbook-comprehensive documentation of a human-induced artificial glacier surge to date, and will provide a great resource for my students to debate the sometimes fine line between geotechnical misstep and natural hazard!

Reference

(Jamieson, S., M. Ewertowski and D. Evans. 2015. Rapid advance of two mountain glaciers in response to mine-related debris loading. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface. 120: doi:10.1002/2015JF003504.

Tags: , , , , ,

Greenland Ice Sheet “Thermal-Viscous Collapse”

Posted by William Colgan on July 17, 2015
Climate Change, New Research / No Comments

We have a new study in the AGU open access journal Earth’s Future this month, which introduces the notion of thermal-viscous collapse of the Greenland ice sheet1. While people tend to think of ice as a solid, it is actually a non-Newtonian fluid, because it deforms and flows over longer time-scales. Of the many strange material properties of ice, the non-linear temperature dependence of its viscosity is especially notable; ice at 0 °C deforms almost ten times more than ice at -10 °C at the same stress. This temperature-dependent viscosity makes ice flow very sensitive to ice temperature. We know that the extra meltwater now being produced at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet, relative to 50 or 100 years ago, contains tremendous latent heat energy. So, in the study, we set out to see if the latent heat in future extra meltwater might have a significant impact on future ice sheet form and flow.

We first developed a conceptual model of what we called “thermal-viscous collapse”, which we define as the enhanced ice flow resulting from warming ice temperatures and subsequently softer ice viscosities. We decided there were three key processes necessary for initiating a thermal-viscous collapse: (1) sufficient energy available in future meltwater runoff, (2) routing of that extra meltwater to the ice-bed interface, and (3) efficient transfer of latent energy from meltwater to the ice. Drawing on previous model projections and observational process studies, and admittedly an injection of explicit speculation, we concluded that it is plausible to warm the deepest 15 % of the Greenland ice sheet, where the majority of deformation occurs, from characteristic Holocene temperatures to the melting-point in the next four centuries.

Figure_2

Figure 1 – Three key elements of thermal-viscous Greenland ice sheet collapse: (1) Sufficient energy available in projected Greenland meltwater runoff, (2) Routing of a fraction of meltwater to the interior ice-bed interface, and (3) Efficient energy transfer from meltwater to ice. This cross-sectional profile reflects mean observed Greenland ice surface and bedrock elevations between 74.1 and 76.4°N. Dashed lines illustrate stylized marine and land glacier termini.

We then used a simple (first-order Navier-Stokes) model of ice flow to simulate the effect of this warming and softening on the ice sheet over the next five centuries. We used a Monte Carlo approach, whereby we ran fifty simulations in which multiple key parameters were varied within their associated uncertainty. As may be expected, warming the deepest 15 % of the ice sheet by 8.8 °C, from characteristic Holocene temperatures to the melting-point, had a significant influence on ice sheet form and flow. Due to softer ice viscosities, the mean ice sheet surface velocity increased three fold, from 43 ± 4 m/yr to 126 ± 17 m/yr, resulting in an ice dynamic drawdown of the ice sheet, causing a 5 ± 2 % ice sheet volume reduction within 500 years. This is equivalent to a global mean sea-level rise contribution of 33 ± 18 cm (or just over one US foot). Of course, the vast majority of the sea level rise associated with thermal-viscous collapse would occur over subsequent millennia.

Figure_11

Figure 2 – Probability density time series of ensemble spread of 50 simulations in prescribed ice temperature (a), mean surface ice velocity (b), and ice volume (c), over a 200-year spin-up to transient equilibrium, and the subsequent 500-year combined transient forcing and spin-down period.

Perhaps a caveat or two: Just like simulating a marine instability induced collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, our simulation of a thermal-viscous collapse of the Greenland ice sheet is an entirely hypothetical end-member scenario. It is admittedly difficult to interpret end-member assessments when their probability of occurrence is unknown. In our case, we did not attempt to constrain the probability of a thermal-viscous collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, we merely demonstrated that initiating a thermal-viscous collapse appears plausible within four centuries, and assessed the associated sea-level rise contribution. Additionally, it may be debatable whether the combination of crevasses and reverse drainage can indeed route meltwater throughout the ice sheet interior, but I suppose that is a debate worth having!

Reference

1Colgan, W., A. Sommers, H. Rajaram, W. Abdalati, and J. Frahm. 2015. Considering thermal-viscous collapse of the Greenland ice sheet. Earth’s Future. 3. doi:10.1002/2015EF000301.

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Hybrid Gravimetry and Altimetry Mass Balance

Posted by William Colgan on July 07, 2015
Communicating Science, New Research, Sea Level Rise / No Comments

We have a new study in this month’s Remote Sensing of Environment, which examines satellite-derived glacier mass balance in Greenland and the Canadian Arctic1. Satellites are generally used to assess glacier mass balance through changes in volume (via satellite altimetry) or changes in mass (via satellite gravimetry). While satellite altimetry observes volume changes at relatively high spatial resolution, it necessitates the forward modeling of firn processes to convert volume changes into mass changes. Conversely, the cryosphere-attributed mass changes observed by satellite gravimetry, while very accurate in absolute terms, have relatively low spatial resolution. In this study, we sought to combine the complementary strengths of both approaches. Using an iterative inversion process that was essentially sequential guess-and-check with a supercomputer, we refined gravimetry-derived observations of cryosphere-attributed mass changes to the relatively high spatial resolution of altimetry-derived volume changes. This gave us a 26 km spatial resolution mass balance field across Greenland and the Canadian Arctic that was simultaneously consistent with: (1) glacier and ice-sheet extent derived from optical imagery, (2) cryospheric-attributed mass trends derived from gravimetry, and (3) ice surface elevation changes derived from altimetry. We have made digital versions of this product available in the supplementary material associated with the publication.

Figure_1

Figure 1 – Observational data inputs to our inversion algorithm. A: Cryosphere-attributed mass changes observed by gravimetry. B: Land ice extent observed by optical imagery. C: Ice surface elevation changes observed by altimetry.

To make sure our inferred mass balance field was reasonable, we evaluated it against all in situ point mass balance observations we could find. Statistically, the validation was great, yielding an RMSE of 15 cm/a between the inversion product and in situ measurements. Practically, however, this apparent agreement largely stems from the fact that we could only find forty in situ point mass balance observations against which to compare. Evaluating our area-aggregated sector-scale mass balance estimates against all previously published sector-scale estimates provides a more meaningful validation. This suggests the magnitude and spatial distribution of inferred mass balance is reasonable, but highlights that the community needs more in situ point observations of mass balance, especially from peripheral glaciers and regions of high dynamic drawdown in Greenland. (For the glaciology hardcores I will note that “mass balance” is distinct from “surface mass balance”, in that the former measurement also includes the ice dynamic portion of mass change.)

Figure_11_corrected

Figure 2 – A comparison of similar sector scale mass balance estimates and associated uncertainties across Greenland and the Canadian Arctic. Dashed lines denote estimates that pertain to the Greenland ice sheet proper (i.e. exclusive of peripheral glaciers). Jacob et al. (2012) estimates pertain to Canada, while Sasgen et al. (2012) estimates pertain to Greenland.

This new inversion mass balance product, which we are calling “HIGA” (Hybrid glacier Inventory, Gravimetry and Altimetry), suggests that between 2003 to 2009 Greenland lost 292 ± 78 Gt/yr of ice and the Canadian Arctic lost  42 ± 11 Gt/yr of ice. While the majority of Greenland’s ice loss was associated with the ice sheet proper (212 ± 67 Gt/yr), peripheral glaciers and ice caps, which comprise < 5 % of Greenland’s ice-covered area, produced ~ 15 % of Greenland mass loss (38 ± 11 Gt/yr). A good reminder that ice loss from “Greenland” is not synonymous with ice loss from the “Greenland ice sheet”. Differencing our tri-constrained mass balance product from a simulated surface mass balance field allowed us to assess the ice dynamic component of mass balance (technically termed the “horizontal divergence of ice flux”). This residual ice dynamic field infers flux divergence (or submergent ice flow) in the ice sheet accumulation area and at tidewater margins, and flux convergence (or emergent ice flow) in land-terminating ablation areas. This is consistent with continuum mechanics theory, and really highlights the difference in ice dynamics between the ice sheet’s east and west margins.

Figure_13

Figure 3 – Spatially partitioning the glacier continuity equation in surface and ice dynamic components. A: Transient glacier and ice sheet mass balance. B: Simulated surface mass balance. C: Residual ice dynamic (or horizontal divergence of ice flux) term. The ∇Q color scale is reversed to maintain blue shading for mass gain and red shading for mass loss in all subplots. Color scales saturate at minimum and maximum values. Black contours denote zero.

As with some scientific publications, this one has a bit of a backstory. In this case, we submitted a preliminary version of the study to The Cryosphere in December 2013. After undergoing three rounds of review at The Cryosphere, the first one of which is archived in perpetuity here, it was rejected, primarily for insufficient treatment of the uncertainty associated with firn compaction. Coincidentally, on the same day I received The Cryosphere rejection letter, I received a letter from the European Space Agency (ESA) granting funding for a follow-up study. A mixed day on email indeed! After substantial retooling, including a discussion section dedicated to firn compaction and the most conservative error bounds conceivable, we were happy to see this GRACE-ICESat study funded by NASA and the Danish Council for Independent Research appear in Remote Sensing of Environment. The editors at both journals, however, were very helpful in moving us forward. Our ESA-funded GRACE-CryoSat product development is now ongoing, but a sneak peek is below.

ESA_partition

Figure 4 – Same as Figure 3, except using a 5 km resolution GRACE-CryoSat inversion product instead of a 26 km resolution GRACE-ICESat inversion product. Colorbars are different in shading, but identical in magnitude.

Reference

1W. Colgan, W. Abdalati, M. Citterio, B. Csatho, X. Fettweis, S. Luthcke, G. Moholdt, S. Simonsen, M. Stober. 2015. Hybrid glacier Inventory, Gravimetry and Altimetry (HIGA) mass balance product for Greenland and the Canadian Arctic. Remote Sensing of Environment. 168: 24-39.

Tags: , , , , , ,