{"id":543,"date":"2018-12-20T03:44:37","date_gmt":"2018-12-20T08:44:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/?p=543"},"modified":"2024-06-20T12:41:36","modified_gmt":"2024-06-20T17:41:36","slug":"eight-trillion-tonnes-of-arctic-ice-lost-since-1971","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/?p=543","title":{"rendered":"Eight trillion tonnes of Arctic ice lost since 1971"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We have just completed a study that inventories Arctic land ice loss since 1971. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/aaf2ed\">It is available open-access in the current issue of <em>Environmental Research Letters<\/em><sup>1<\/sup><\/a>. While we scientists have a pretty good idea of the health &#8212; or mass balance &#8212; of glaciers and ice sheets &#8212; or land ice &#8212; since the advent of satellite altimetry in the early 1990s, there is a need for better understanding of land ice health during the pre-satellite era. Our new study estimates the annual ice loss from all glacierized regions north of 55\u00b0N between 1971 and 2017.<\/p>\n<p>We use in situ data \u2013 mass balance measurements from a handful of continuously monitored glaciers \u2013 as indicators for the health of land ice in seven Arctic regions. These hard-fought in situ data are scarce, they are only measured at between 20 and 44 Arctic glaciers every year. Extrapolating these data to entire regions is statistically challenging without additional information. Fortunately, independent estimates of regional mass balance are available from satellite gravimetry during the 2003 to 2015 period. This permits calibrating in situ and satellite-derived mass balance estimates during the satellite era. This makes our pre-satellite era estimates fairly robust.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/v-jNm-5Uz5Y\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>During the 41 years assessed, we estimate that approximately 8,300 Gt of Arctic land ice was lost. It is difficult to contextualize this magnitude of ice loss. The flow of Niagara Falls \u2013 which is approximately 2400 m<sup>3<\/sup> per second or about 75 km<sup>3<\/sup> per year \u2013 is only equivalent to about half this volume (3500 km<sup>3<\/sup>) over the 1971-2017 period. The total Arctic land ice loss that we document represents 23 mm of sea-level rise since 1971. Greenland is by far the largest contributor (10.6 mm sea-level equivalent), followed by Alaska (5.7 mm sea-level equivalent) and then Arctic Canada (3.2 mm sea-level equivalent).<\/p>\n<p>The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now highlights two periods \u2013 the \u201crecent past\u201d (1986-2005) and \u201cpresent day\u201d (2005-2015) \u2013 as being of special interest in climate change studies. The Arctic land ice contribution to sea-level rise that we inventory increased from 0.4 to 1.1 mm sea-level equivalent between these periods. In terms of tonnes per second (5,000 to 14,000 t\/s), both the magnitude \u2013 and the increase \u2013 are staggering.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_554\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-554\" class=\"wp-image-554\" src=\"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-4-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"393\" srcset=\"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-4-1024x805.png 1024w, https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-4-300x236.png 300w, https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-4-768x604.png 768w, https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-4.png 1560w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-554\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1 &#8211; The cumulative sea-level rise contribution (in mm) from land ice in seven regions of the Arctic between 1971 and 2017. Analogous estimates from satellite gravimetry (GRACE) between 2003 and 2015 shown with open symbols.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The uncertainties associated with extrapolating sparse in situ data over large areas are undeniably large. But, the reality is that climate change was already gearing up as the global satellite observation network came online. So, in the absence of satellite data that can characterize the \u201cpre-climate change\u201d health of Arctic land ice, we need to leverage the extremely precious pre-satellite era observations that are available in creative ways. We hope that the ice loss estimates we present will be useful comparison targets for studies that estimate pre-satellite era mass balance in other ways.<\/p>\n<p>The estimates of annual land ice mass balance &#8212; or health &#8212; in seven Arctic regions produced by this study are freely available for download <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tinyurl.com\/Box-Arctic-MB\">here<\/a>. This study was developed within the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) and International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) frameworks, as a direct contribution to the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC).<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_553\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-553\" class=\"wp-image-553\" src=\"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-3-667x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-3-667x1024.png 667w, https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-3-195x300.png 195w, https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-3-768x1179.png 768w, https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/BoxERL_Fig-3.png 1946w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-553\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 2 &#8211; Annual land ice mass balance &#8212; or health &#8212; in six Arctic regions between 1971 and 2017. Individual glacier mass balance records (blue lines) are combined into a regional composite (black line). Health is expressed both as a normalized score (left axis) and in gigatonnes per year (right axis). The numbers of glaciers comprising each composite is indicated in red text.<\/p><\/div>\n<p><sup>1<\/sup><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/aaf2ed\">Box, J., W. Colgan, B. Wouters, D. Burgess, S. O&#8217;Neel, L. Thomson and S. Mernild. 2018. Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971 to 2017. <i>Environmental Research Letters<\/i>.<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-cards=\"hidden\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Our study assessing Arctic glacier loss since 1971 is out today. <br \/>I&#39;ve written about *billions* of tonnes of ice loss before, but this is my first time writing about sea-level rise from *trillions* of tonnes. \ud83c\udf0a\ud83d\ude44<br \/>blog: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GP880GMNpl\">https:\/\/t.co\/GP880GMNpl<\/a><br \/>study: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KSUXDTtBpS\">https:\/\/t.co\/KSUXDTtBpS<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Rz95RmIg1t\">pic.twitter.com\/Rz95RmIg1t<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; William Colgan, Ph.D. (@GlacierBytes) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GlacierBytes\/status\/1076055067000799233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 21, 2018<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We have just completed a study that inventories Arctic land ice loss since 1971. It is available open-access in the current issue of Environmental Research Letters1. While we scientists have a pretty good idea of the health &#8212; or mass balance &#8212; of glaciers and ice sheets &#8212; or land ice &#8212; since the advent [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,12,16],"tags":[152,116,5,14,91,202,93,120],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=543"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":567,"href":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543\/revisions\/567"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/williamcolgan.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}